When to not go flying

I was scheduled to fly my long solo cross-country today. But I didn't.

Today was one of those days where the weather is just marginal enough that you could successfully argue in favor of going and also in not going. I had the Skyhawk scheduled for 8 to 1. I started checking and re-checking the forecasts yesterday. We've had several days of clouds and this weekend is forecast for more. The air is pretty stable, just cloudy. So the trick for today is how low will the clouds be hanging out.

I got up at 6 this morning and checked the weather. Addison was reporting ...

KADS 181147Z 00000KT 13SM OVC030 07/02 A3045

But Tyler, my first destination was reporting ...

KTYR 181153Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 00/M03 RMK A02 SLPNO T00001028 10028 21006$

And my second destination, Paris was reporting ...

KPRX 181155Z AUTO 05006KT 10SM CLR 02/M06 A3046 RMK A01 10060 20010 52014

So, clouds at Addison and a couple of the surrounding airports but clear at my outlying destinations. Muddying the picture was a forecast for Tyler predicting clouds at 4000' around the time I would be there. So I called up Monarch once they opened and asked if, since no one had the Skyhawk reserved after me, could I postpone my reservation by two hours. "Sure". Great!

I pulled a winds forecast and set about filling out the blank spots in my flight plans. Filling out three took longer than I expected so I was running late. I called Monarch at about 15 till 10am and my instructor, C, picked up! I told him what was up and he sounded pretty optimistic about the weather so told me to go ahead and drive in and review the weather again with whomever was at the desk.

I gathered my stuff and drove over. The guy behind the desk wasn't quite so optimistic. He had just come back from a flight in the practice area and the clouds were lower than expected there (North of Addison). So we agreed to postpone another hour and check the weather at 11.

I went upstairs and planted myself in front of a computer. Wow! Waiting for metars to update is like watching paint dry!! :p

Finally, 11 rolls around and the new reports look like this ...

KADS 181647Z 00000KT 13SM BKN037 OVC150 09/01 A3055
KTYR 181653Z 05004KT 10SM CLR 08/M02 RMK A02 SLPNO T00781017$
KPRX 181655Z AUTO 12005KT 10SM FEW039 SCT049 BKN070 08/M03 A3056 RMK A01

Other airports were reporting no real significant changes. So Addison looked to be clearing up a bit but now there were multiple cloud layers at Paris. And the FA still predicted broken or overcast layers around 4000'. If Tyler and Paris stayed clear and Addison reported rising clouds I would have gone. But since Paris was clouding up I just got an uneasy feeling about everything. And my weather rule for now is ...

If it's obviously good weather then go.

If it's obviously bad weather then don't go.

If it's marginal weather and you can't discern a definite trend then don't go.

So I cancelled. I'm not in a hurry to finish my training, I'm just enjoying myself as it goes along. And besides, I have the week after Christmas off from work so there will be 6 opportunities in a row to go flying!